REPUBLIKA.CO.ID, WASHINGTON - US intelligence agencies did not detect the Syrian regime readying a massive chemical weapons attack in the days ahead of the strike, only piecing together what had happened after the fact, US officials say.
One of the key pieces of intelligence that Secretary of State John Kerry later used to link the attack to the Syrian government — intercepts of communications telling Syrian military units to prepare for the strikes — was in the hands of US intelligence agencies but had not yet been "processed," according to senior US officials. That explains why the White House didn't warn either the regime or the opposition who might be targeted as it had done when detecting previous preparations for chemical strikes.
"We know that for three days before the attack the Syrian regime's chemical weapons personnel were on the ground in the area making preparations," Kerry said as he presented the evidence in a State Department speech last week. "We know that the Syrian regime elements were told to prepare for the attack by putting on gas masks and taking precautions associated with chemical weapons."
But the Obama administration only uncovered the evidence after Syrians started posting reports of the strike from the scene of the attack, leading US spies and analysts to focus on satellite and other evidence showing a Syrian chemical weapons unit was preparing chemical munitions before the strike, according to two current US officials and two former senior intelligence officials. They spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss the intelligence publicly.
The spokesman for the director of national intelligence confirmed that US intelligence did not detect the massive chemical weapons attack beforehand.
"Let's be clear, the United States did not watch, in real time, as this horrible attack took place," Shawn Turner said in a statement to The Associated Press on Wednesday. "The intelligence community was able to gather and analyze information after the fact and determine that elements of the Assad regime had in fact taken steps to prepare prior to using chemical weapons," Turner said.
The CIA and the Defense Intelligence Agency have dozens officers on the ground in countries neighboring Syria, relying on a network of rebels and local agents to provide human intelligence on the goings on of both the regime and its opponents. The Pentagon also has satellites focused on the area, capturing images of the regime and rebel maneuvers, while various types of airborne platforms collect electronic transmissions such as military radio traffic or cellphone calls.
The US says 1,429 died in the attack. Casualty estimates by other groups are far lower.