REPUBLIKA.CO.ID, JAKARTA -- Finance Minister Chatib Basri said the economic growth assumptions established in the 2015 Draft Budget by 5.6 percent has been optimistic and in accordance with the development of the global economy next year.
"Economic growth of 5.6 percent has been due to the improvement of the situation globally," he announced at a press conference on the principles of fiscal policy and posture of the 2015 Draft Budget on Friday.
The minister explained that the assumptions of economic growth will be the basis for discussion of the draft budget. The discussion will be held between the government and the parliament during the transition period.
"The draft budget had been formulated with a framework conservative of macro assumptions to provide space for the new government in raising growth in budget replacement. Later, growth range of 5.5-6 percent could be adjusted by the new government," he noted.
The finance minister pointed out that the draft budget provided space for the new government to implement the program according to the vision and mission planned, so this acts as only a baseline budget for basic needs of governance and service to the community.
Global economy is expected to improve due to the global economic slowdown that had occurred temporarily at the beginning of 2014.
Moreover, the economic improvement of developing countries will support global economic recovery.
However, the potential risk is still existent, and we should be aware, particularly associated with increased geopolitical risks that could raise oil prices, of the economic slowdown in China and the normalization of the policy of the United States Central Bank (The Fed).
Under these conditions, the government has set macro assumptions, such as inflation of 4.4 percent, SPN interest rate of 6.2 percent, rupiah value of 11,900 per dollar, price of oil ICP $105 per barrel, oil lifting about 845,000 barrels per day, and gas lifting 1,248,000 barrels per day.
On the basis of fiscal policy and the basic assumptions of the macro, the state revenue has planned to reach Rp1,762.3 trillion and expenditure Rp2,019.9 trillion, so that the budget deficit in 2015 is projected at Rp257.6 trillion or 2.32 percent of GDP.
Of the state income, tax revenue is expected to reach Rp1,370.9 trillion, non-tax revenue amounted to Rp388 trillion, and grants amounted to Rp3.4 trillion.
Moreover, from the state expenditure, the government's expenditure has been set at Rp1,379.9 trillion and a budget transfer to the rural area and funds worth Rp640 trillion.
The government targeted financing in domestic sector for covering the deficit at Rp281.4 trillion and negative foreign financing Rp23.8 trillion.
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