REPUBLIKA.CO.ID, JAKARTA – The earthquake that struck Aceh on April 11, 2012 could affect the west coast of Sumatra, the Spokesman of National Agency for Disaster Management (BNPB), Sutopo Purwonugroho, said.

“The analysts predict that 8.5 SR earthquake can affect the balance system of subduction in Mentawai. It could lead to 8.9 SR mega trust earthquake,” he said in the press conference on Thursday. About 20-35 minutes later, the 6-10 meter tsunami could hit Padang and west coast of Sumatra.

The water would overflow until 2-5 kilometers from coast line for 2.5 hours according to land topography. With the condition of infrastructure in Padang, Purwonugroho predicts people living near beach line need 40 minutes to reach safe location. “But tsunami threat will come in 20-35 minutes,” he said.

Several infrastructures, he said, such as Teluk Bayur Port, Tabing Airport, Minangkabau International Airport, housing, land transportation, electricity, and telecommunication could damage heavily.

Yet, he admitted that no analyst could predict the time the mega trust could possibly happen. Government will prepare to face the disaster. BNPB will also prepare 3-5 trillion IDR to build the shelters in the form of high building in the potential area.

“For Padang, at least we need 300 until 500 shelters,” he said. Padang now only has seven shelters with most of them are school.

Aided by local government, ministries, and institution, BNPB will build the shelters on 2013 in mosque, church, and airport. “When Aceh struck by tsunami, mosque remained solid,” he said.

Vertical shelter in the form of artificial hill will be built as effective evacuation route for the refugee in the city. There are 11 potential locations for the hill.

He also asked people to make private shelter due to government’s limited ability. An example is the shelter in Masjid Almuhajirin, Padang, which can hold up to 1,500 people. It was built by local community. 

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