REPUBLIKA.CO.ID, By: Ikhwanul Kiram Mashuri

How do we analyze two key Western figures' statements about condition of the Middle East today? One was former British Prime Minister Tony Blair and another was strong candidate of US presidential from Republic Party Donald Trump.

In an interview with CNN that was aired last Sunday (25/10), Blair admitted that the US and British invasion to Iraq in 2003 had triggered the emergence of a group who was calling itself as Islamic State of Iraq and Syria a.k.a ISIS. However, he added, it was not the only reason. Another dominant cause was the influence of the Arab Spring in 2011.

As evidence that showed the invasion to Iraq was not the only cause of ISIS, Blair pointed the radical group led by Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi was out (read: created) in Syria, not Iraq. '' Of course, we, who were toppled Saddam in 2003, has the responsibility for the situation in 2015, '' Blair said, after the decision to send troops to support the US military in Iraq gained sharp criticism in his country.

Therefore, Blair added, he would not apologize for his decision to send British military in toppling Saddam Hussein's regime. He just apologized with what he described as an error in tactics, misinformation of intelligence in the war-making, and planning errors in the period after Saddam.

In an interview, he also defended his country's decision to send troops to Iraq and to intervene Libya and Syria. According to him, despite the British decision to intervene the Middle East countries had not showed desired results, but the condition was now better - than when Saddam Hussein was still reigning. ''That's why I am not going to apologize for the overthrow of Saddam (Hussein). I believe to this day, in 2015 his in-existence (Saddam Hussein) was still better than his existence.''

However, Blair point of view was disputed by a US presidential candidate from Republican Party, Donald Trump. According to Trump, the world would be more comfortable if Saddam Hussein and Muammar Qaddafi still in power in Iraq and Libya, although he admitted the two were cruel to their people.

Trump statement was delivered in a talk show on CNN, which was then reported by the AFP news agency on Monday (26/10), a day after Blair statement. As the top ranking of US presidential candidate from Republican Party, the statement of Trump was in the framework of campaign. This time, it was to attack the foreign policy of President Barack Obama and Secretary of State Hilary Clinton, the strongest rival of Trump from Democrat Party.

According to Trump, the Middle East was destroyed in the reign of Secretary of State Hilary Clinton and President Obama. He called Iraq was now as 'Harvard terrorism'. Iraq had became a place of 'training for terrorism'. However, he admitted that the destruction was not separated from the decision of President George Bush in 2003 to invade Iraq.

President Saddam Hussein was toppled in a US military invasion that was backed by British to Iraq in 2003. He was executed in 2006. Saddam was accused of storing weapons of mass destruction, which until now had never been proven.

Now let's see how was the beginning of emergence of ISIS who now controlled vast areas of Iraq and Syria. ISIS was formed by former members of Al-Qaeda in Iraq (al Qaeda fi Bilad ar Rafidin). Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, who then announced himself as caliph of ISIS, became popular after Abu Musab al Zarkawi was killed by a US air strike in 2006. Al Zarkawi was the supreme leader of al Qaeda in Iraq.

In that period, emerged a group that was calling itself as the al Tandzimu ad Daulah Islamiyah fi al-Iraq that later became ad-Daula al Islamiya fi al-Iraq wa as Sham/ as Suriyah or ISIS after they took control over the territory of Syria. Members of ISIS were mostly former member of al Qaeda in Iraq.

Before that, in 2004, US forces arrested a person who was later known as Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, in a US military operation in Fallujah. He was then detained for several months. After free, he disappeared for some times. When he appeared he immediately led ISIS and consecrated himself as caliph with the title of Amirul Mukminin.

Since the US invasion in 2003 until the Arab Spring which also attacked Syria in 2011, Iraq had became the center of activities of radical organizations and terrorists from people who were associated with al Qaeda. They took advantage on political and security turmoil after the overthrow of Saddam Hussein. In order to recruit the 'fighters', they deliberately used the slogans of anti-Western, anti-American, anti-Shia and so on. However, the Shia, had became the ruler of Iraq after Saddam Hussein's reign. The democratic system had led them as majority in the country to power.

With such data, it was difficult that we could accept Tony Blair's statement that ISIS was born or formed in Syria, not in Iraq. Any evidences showed that ISIS was formed and existed because of the presence of US forces and its allies, especially Britain, in Iraq. The existence of foreign troops had caused the emergence of resistance groups in Iraq. This condition was then exploited by radical groups of al-Qaeda to form ISIS.

Meanwhile, the Arab Spring or al-Rabi 'al-Araby in the form of protest actions to overthrow the dictator of Arab rulers, began to occur in early 2011, or after the emergence of ISIS. It was started from Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Yemen, to Syria. Of these countries, only Syria who failed to overthrow the regime, namely regime of President Bashar Assad. However, strong resistance that lasted up to now had led Syria to powerful political turbulence. This condition had supported the radical groups, especially ISIS, in Syria.

The question was, is if Saddam Hussein - and all dictators such as Qadafi and others - were still in power, the condition of Iraq and the Middle East generally more stable as stated by Donald Trump?

This question was difficult to answer because it did not happen. However, the invasion of the US and its allies against Iraq had supported radical groups in the Middle East. Donald Trump's statement stated that 'Iraq has now become Harvard terrorism'. As a result, terrorism had spread and burn the entire Middle East region.

I called it, this was a Western conspiracy to ruffle the Middle East, especially the Arab countries. The goal was to create instability in the region so that they  could continue to rely on the West. It was exactly as they did in 1940-1950's when 'planting' Israel in the heart of the Arab world, after they knew that the colonial countries in the Middle East would be independence from the colonial West.

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