By Ridwan Hasan Saputra

Founder of the clinics on Mathematics and Science Education and coach of math olympiad

REPUBLIKA.CO.ID, When a friend asked me to calculate the number of participants in 212 rally, it was like a call to provide assistance based on my competence on mathematics. But, precisely counting the number of 212 rally participants was very difficult. It might even be impossible. 

No wonder if some people said it was about 7 million people, 4 million, or 2 million. But, that was not fair to say it was only tens of thousands of people. The different calculation may occur because they used visual observation. So, it raised the occurrence of different number like 7 millions and tens of thousands.

Counting by comparing

There were many methods to count the 212 participants, among others by comparing the mass of 411 rally and the 212 rally. It was based on the photographs taken from the buildings around the site. 

Previously, a statement said that the participants of 411 rally reached the number of 2.245.200 people. It was calculated using Google Earth application. And then, people predicted that the number of participants in 212 rally were more than 4 million people. They visually saw that the crowd was doubled. The estimation might reach 7 million if they saw the crowd was triplet. 

When people said the participants were only tens of thousands, maybe he was busy on getting the news or reporting the current situation of 212 rally. So, they didn’t recognize the information updated in social media, showed many photographs taken from the buildings around the National Monument (Monas). 

Counting the area density

Another way to calculate the mass is by counting the large of the area people used to conduct Friday prayer. It was measured in square meter, divided by the large of the prayer mat. 

We can start it by calculating the large of the Monas area and the streets surroundings, such as HI Roundabout, Medan Merdeka Street, MH Thamrin Street, Menteng Raya Street, Arief Rahman Hakim Street, Sudirman Street, Imam Bonjol Street, Moch. Yamin Street, and so on. We also needed to count the sidewalks and the parking areas in the buildings around the streets. 

But, it was not easy to precisely calculate the area, because we didn’t know exactly which areas were used by the mass. There might be some parts of the street fulfilled by the parked cars and buses. The participants might also use the parking area inside the buildings to place their prayer mat. 

Counting the heads

We could use the satellite images to calculate the amount of human heads in the site of 212 rally. This will involved the use of sophisticated computer programs. This method were certainly more detailed that the first and the second ones. However, it still has some weaknesses. It cannot count the people whom the head obstructed by trees, tents, and buildings. We need to wait for the accurate calculation done by the competent authorities on this field. 

Supra-rational counting

I thought the real number of participants of 212 rally were far greater than most of the quantitative predictions. In fact, not all of the participants come to Jakarta. Some were not allowed to drive the bus and the others might be trapped by the jam. 

If all this participants gathered, no one could count the number of participants except Allah. I tried to make my own calculation based on the benefit in the future and facts. It might be the first and the last super-peaceful rally. 

Based on the visual fact, there were more people joined the 212 rally compared to the 411. So, the number of the participants must be more than 2 million. Based on the density, the maximum numbers of people captured on the community drone were 3,987,072 people. 

Based on my perspective that no one could accurately calculate the amount, and based on the benefit principles, I preferred to mention that it was 5,513,212 people. What were the benefits of using this number? 

Twenty years from now, our grandchildren might ask what the meaning behind the number of 5,513,212 was. We could explain that it was the approximate number of participants of Aksi Damai Bela Islam III. The aim of the rally was the 3rd rally to defend the Quran, Al Maidah verse 51, and it held on Desember 2. 

Many people would have different opinions. There will be a lot of numbers appeared to predicted the precise population. But, it would be easily forgotten if it was not unique. The number 5,513,212 would certainly be memorable. 

Truth belongs only to God, we just wanted to know and found out, but Allah is the Omniscient.

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