REPUBLIKA.CO.ID, JAKARTA -- Mirae Asset Sekuritas economist Rully Arya Wisnubroto considers the outlook for the Indonesian stock market to be quite good in 2024 despite the challenges of global uncertainty.
“We feel the outlook for the stock market is still quite good next year, assuming there is an aggressive rate cut by the central bank, the Fed and Bank Indonesia,” Rully said in Jakarta on Tuesday (12/12/2023).
He said that one thing to watch out for is the potential for considerable volatility if it turns out that the drop in interest rates is not as large as expected. “Retail investors should carefully look at the fundamental condition of the company, and don't fight foreign flows,” he said.
In addition to the stock market outlook being fairly good next year, Rully projects the bond market is also reasonably good, with expectations of a fall in interest rates.
On the other hand, it considers that based on historical data from the last 20 years, economic growth is more affected by global economic conditions.
His party is reasonably optimistic that the domestic political situation will remain conducive during next year's general election. However, the general election will not have a significant impact on economic growth.
On the other hand, there is a great opportunity for accelerated growth in the next few years. On condition, the new administration will implement a range of policies to accelerate growth and maintain political stability simultaneously.
Earlier, Bank Indonesia (BI) Governor Perry Warjiyo during the press conference of Bank Indonesia 2023 Annual Meeting in Jakarta on Wednesday (29/11/2023), predicted that the Central Bank of the United States (US), the Fed will lower its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points (bps) in the second half of 2024. The fall in inflation in some developed countries, including the US, is still running slowly next year, although monetary policy tightening has taken place very aggressively.
Meanwhile, Bank Indonesia will maintain its benchmark interest rate (BI-7 Days Reverse Repo Rate/BI7DDR) in 2024, as global conditions remain volatile and uncertainty remains high. The central bank's benchmark interest rate currently stands at 6.00 percent, having been raised in October 2023 to keep the rupiah under pressure.
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