REPUBLIKA.CO.ID, By: Soedibyo

A threat is something that could endanger the sovereignty and the integrity  of the country of Indonesia.  The National Defense and  the Domestic Security Situation (the People’s  Security, Peace and Order) politically  belong to the National Security Situation. Functionally  the National Defense is the national security situation affected by the possible  threat  coming from the outside the country.

Meanwhile, functionally the Domestic Security Situation  (People’s  Security, Peace and Order) is the National Security  Situation affected by the possible  threat instigated by the  various factors  coming from within the country.    

Consequently  talking about the situation of the national defense is clearly we should analyze what is our threat may come from outside the country. And also consequently talking about the domestic security situation of this country clearly we have to observe the domestic factors may disturb  the internal security situation.

Assessment

A number of elements coming from outside the country which are potential to provoke security threat to the national sovereignty and integrity of the country of Indonesia and concurrently to endanger the life of the Indonesian nation are  among others ; Ideological threat  which is  to endanger Pancasila the national ideology  and  to destroy the National Integrity of  the country of Indonesia and to destroy the implementation of the Indonesian Constitution ; Foreign national  invasion based on expansion policy of the respective intruder ; Manipulation of  the unclear border line to enter the Indonesia territory illegally done by foreign troops ; Foreign  Military Action entering the territory of Indonesia manipulating the Unending process of dispute area ; Foreign country’s  effort to control any strategic location on Indonesia territory ; Foreign country’s occupation of remote island belongs to the country of Indonesia ; Foreign military equipment entering into the territory of Indonesia caused by technical equipment error that could provoke unnecessary military tension ; The threat (such as terrorism) which is endangering the National Integrity and sovereignty.

Since the over of the Cold War, any hostile relation among the countries in the world also in Asia and South East Asia has also ended. The ideological threat has disappear and international cooperation are promoted everywhere in the world and also in South East of Asia.The military capabilities are continued to be developed, but it is likely just to build a deterrent  factor to avoid a big and modern war and to support the diplomatic action concerning the sovereignty on various disputed islands.

Politically the country of Indonesia has the diplomatic relation with almost the country in the world, especially in Asia and South East Asia. The diplomatic relations  with all of those countries are cordial and close especially among the countries of South East Asia.  Not any political disagreement took place though a number of border problems are  existing. It is predicted this kind of situation will be maintained by all the countries of South East Asia. There are strong intention among the countries especially in South East Asia to solve any dispute territory through diplomatic means. So it can be predict that there will be not any political dispute which are potential to become military or defense conflict. The countries of South East Asia tend to led the stalemate situation rather than to conduct military confrontation among them.

From the military view that kind of the situation is mainly  because all the country of South East Asia has strong and modern military capability to defense their country.  All the countries in Asia especially in South East Asia are always  trying  to avoid any military conflict to take place, because a  war  or military conflict among countries in Asia and South East Asia will certainly destroy most of their respective  economic infrastructure or  other infrastructure of their daily life.

To avoid any hostile situation in  South East Asia  the military leaders of this part of Asia are trying their best to establish  cordial and close relations among them and to meet regularly under the umbrella of ASEAN cooperation. This kind situation will be likely maintained  by all the countries of Asia and especially in South East Asia now and then.

On the problem of  the domestic  security situation  in term of the People’s Security, Peace and Order,  a number of factors which are able to provoke internal disturbances are existing all over the  country. The country of Indonesia is a big and wide countries consist of thousand island and almost 250 million of population. Indonesia  is also maritime country with tens of wide sea and sailing straits among the islands belong to the Country of Indonesia.

The factors  which needs serious and continuous  observations and attention are among others  Any possible armed  or radical actions done by a certain group of people influenced  by a certain political  or social  motives especially in remote areas ; The land dispute in the hinterland and remote areas among the society ;  The illegal enters coming from outside the country ; Radical movements  which take place among various interest group ; Mass  action provoked by any sensitive issue. The revenge done a group of people who felt insulting by another group ; A number of various criminal acts such as kidnapping or killing which is endangering  others people to create psychological impact among the people ; Social  activities that is followed by physical conflicts such as conflict between two groups of foot ball supporters ; Various criminal, acts disturbing people’s secure, peace and to live orderly such as brutal roberry long the busy street ; The individual or organized conflict provoke by the effect of expanding number of the population and limited infrastructure to live such those of wild occupancy.

All of those possible factors are unlikely  to be erased totally because the country of Indonesia is really a big and large country with around 250  million of inhabitant.

In the recent years all of the factors that could provoke the existing People Security, Peace and Order had  appeared  unexpectedly.  It  is predicted the same situation will  take place in the year 2016. Luckily any secret and illegal group of people as an organized crime can early as possible to be dismissed by the Security Apparatus.

However  the various criminal acts motivated by economic and social factors  are likely difficult to be reduced totally, because of the increase of the number of population and the increasing hard life among many people. In the meantime the unexpected security situation provoked by various motives will be likely decreasing,  because  of rapid action by the Security Apparatus against any possible organized crime indicating to emerge. So  any secret and illegal group of people as an organized crime can early as possible to be dismissed by the Security Apparatus

Conclusion

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There is no ideological and political threat toward the country of Indonesia that could provoke Indonesian military or Indonesia defense system. The role of diplomatic effort  to maintain cordial and good relation with foreign countries  is very eminent, in order to avoid military conflict or war between the country of Indonesia and a certain foreign country.

The countries of the world especially those of Asia and South East Asia tend to avoid military conflict that could provoke big and modern warfare, because the big and modern warfare will certainly destroy  the economic and other national infra structure of the respective   conflicting   countries.

All the countries are certainly trying to build up its defense capabilities, but it  is  just likely  to build up the deterrence  military capability to avoid war and to maintain the military balance in this area. Strong military power is certainly necessary to support the diplomatic action done by the Ministry for Foreign Affair.

In term of the domestic security situation of the country of Indonesia, it is predicted the People’s Security, Peace and Order, instigated by number of permanent elements  such as the wide country of Indonesia with various respective interest of the inhabitant and the increasing number of its population  will likely to be a permanent factors that could erupt  as social or political problem of the country.

In the year of 2016 though in general the internal situation are always favorable  for the continuance  of the  national development agenda, but occasionally disturbing situation  could be unexpectedly  to emerge if the awareness and alertness of the security apparatus  supported by the people do not work well.

To create a good cooperation between the Armed Forces which is in charge in the national defense and the Internal Security Units,  a kind of Cooperation Council under the leadership of the Coordinating Minister of Security, Political and Law is necessary to be established  The national defense and the Domestic Security Situation are the main element of our National Security.

*) The writer is a Lieutenant General (Ret). A former head of State Intelligent Coordination Board (BAKIN)

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