REPUBLIKA.CO.ID, WASHINGTON - Just as their economies had begun to recover from the man-made horror of coups and civil war, the West African nations of Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone have been knocked back down by a terrifying force of nature: the Ebola virus.
In addition to the human toll — more than 4,000 dead so far — the outbreak has paralyzed economic life. Across the Ebola zone, shops are closed, hotels vacant, flights cancelled, fields untended, investments on hold.
In Conakry, capital of Guinea, stray dogs, goats and sheep are plopping down next to empty stalls in street markets devoid of shoppers. About the only things people want to buy are products meant to guard against Ebola — antiseptic gels and devices that attach to faucets and add chlorine to the water.
"These are selling like bread at the market," said Cece Loua, who sells pharmaceutical products in Conakry.
The World Bank has dramatically downgraded its expectations for economic growth this year in the three countries hardest hit by the outbreak. Guinea will grow 2.4 percent, down from a previously forecast 4.5 percent, it predicts; Liberia 2.5 percent, down from 5.9 percent; and Sierra Leone 8 percent, down from 11.3 percent.
"It's been really devastating," said Rosa Whitaker, CEO of the consultancy the Whitaker Group and a former US trade official.
It's an especially cruel turn for three impoverished economies that had been making steady progress after years of devastating conflict:
— In Sierra Leone, which endured a civil war from 1991 to 2002 that killed 70,000 and left 2.6 million homeless, the economy surged 20 percent last year and 15 percent in 2012.
— Liberia, which lost 250,000 people to civil wars from 1989 to 2003, has recorded double-digit economic growth four of the past five years.
— Guinea, with a history of bloody coups and political strife, has grown more slowly (2.5 percent last year and 3.9 percent in 2012), but had expected its economy to accelerate as foreign companies invested in such projects as the Simandou iron ore mine.
"No one could have imagined the extent of the economic and social turnaround," said Steven Radelet, a foreign aid expert at Georgetown University and an adviser to the Liberian government. "The past 10 years, there's been remarkable progress, and a lot of investors coming in."
Ebola has frozen the economic revival.
"They were coming back and now have been set back in a big way," said Francisco Ferreira, the World Bank's chief economist for Africa.
The epidemic damages the economy directly. Commerce stops. The sick can't work. Contaminated areas close down. Tax collections dry up. Health care costs swell, squeezing governments already struggling with expenses.
Analysts are at least optimistic that the economic damage from the crisis can be contained to the hardest-hit countries. The three Ebola-stricken nations are, after all, economically small, and their troubles are unlikely to disrupt commerce beyond their borders: Combined, their three economies amount to half the size of Vermont's.
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