REPUBLIKA.CO.ID, WARSAW -- Poland's conservative opposition is poised to win Sunday's general election, according to final polls, which suggest its welfare promises and anti-refugee rhetoric have helped clinch a hefty lead over the governing centrists.
Analysts however also insist the departure last year of centrist leader Donald Tusk to the post of EU council president left his struggling Civic Platform (PO) in the lurch, paving the way for a Law and Justice (PiS) party victory after eight years in opposition.
The PiS scored between 32 and 40 percent support among voters in surveys released Friday, well ahead of the 24-28 percent for the PO of Prime Minister Ewa Kopacz.
Even if controversial PiS leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski fails to secure the 231-seat majority he needs to govern alone, analysts insist the 66-year-old former premier will easily find MPs from smaller parties willing to join his government, without formally entering into a coalition.
"Kaczynski is sure to win and even if he doesn't manage a majority he will sweep up MPs from smaller parties," Warsaw-based political analyst Eryk Mistewicz told AFP.
Punk rocker Pawel Kukiz, whose May presidential bid scored a surprise 20 percent support, could steer his anti-establishment Kukiz'15 party into parliament. Analysts tip it as the PiS's most likely partner.
Warsaw University political scientist Anna Materska-Sosnowska also points to the PSL farmers' party -- the PO's junior coalition partner in the outgoing administration -- as another possible PiS ally.
Ikuti Whatsapp Channel Republika