By : S Riyanta *)

REPUBLIKA.CO.ID, Mosul, a city that becomes the defense center of IS radical group, has been captured by Iraqi forces. Twenty villages on the outskirts of the city of Mosul have been successfully overcome by the Iraqi forces. Previously, Dabiq as one of IS important city was also seized by Syrian liberation forces, supported by the Turkish military. The loss of the city of Mosul and Dabiq is a sign of IS defeat.

The merging of international forces, especially the reconciliation between Russia and Turkey has turned the fight against IS more massive. IS attractiveness declines and the sympathizers begin to leave the battlefield. IS' terrorist acts in various countries indicate that IS in Iraq and Syria have been dispersed.

The strong Turkish government in preventing the influx of IS sympathizers brings a significant impact on reducing the power of IS. Radical groups in various countries which are sympathetic and affiliated with IS seem to be in trouble joining the IS forces in Iraq and Syria. IS has been completely squashed as the massive attack takes place and the reinforcements are inhibited. Bottom line, the destruction of IS group is just a matter of time.

The weakening and devastating IS will have an impact on a map of radicalism and terrorism in Indonesia. IS has been declared as a banned organization in Indonesia, but the radical narratives that lead to affiliation and sympathy still circulate easily in cyberspace. However, it should be noted that even though the radical groups can be suppressed, the radical thought would still remain in its followers. This thinking will continue to grow in small cells which then will develop more in accordance with existing momentum.

BNPT (National Counterterrorism Agency) head, Commissioner General Suhardi Alius, quoted by media, reports that of the 500 citizens who have joined the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (NIIS) / IS in Syria since 2014, about 320 people have returned to the country who are mostly women and children. From the data, there are still about 180 citizens who have not returned to Indonesia from Syria. It is suspected that the 180 Indonesian citizens are combatants who still join the forces with IS or who may not come back again as they died.

The increasingly desperate IS standing on the edge of collapse will set the approximately 180 Indonesian people (if they were all still alive) in two options, join the IS to the bitter end, or return to Indonesia. If taken roughly that 90 people would stay with IS and 90 people return to Indonesia, Indonesia will have a fairly significant threat. The combatants who return already have fighting ability and global networks. Those sympathizers with the combat capability if returned to Indonesia will build the cells that would be a dangerous group.

Police stated that there are 1,242 sympathizers of IS in Indonesia (Kompas, 10/19/2016). These thousands of people have potential to be developed into a militant organization, especially if it is managed by investigators who had been a combatant of IS in Iraq and Syria. The loss of IS in Iraq and Syria is the beginning of a serious threat to Indonesia.

The government through BNPT, Police, and BIN need to map out citizen who returned from Iraq and Syria. By law, they have helped the radical groups that are the enemy of friendly countries. IS has also been declared as a prohibited organization in Indonesia. Legal action for IS sympathizers needs to be taken firmly to show the government's attitude.

The legal actions of government need to be done strictly in accordance with the radical levels. It requires radical level classification to figure out which could be returned to the community and to be monitored, rehabilitated, or restricted (detained) in order to not endanger the public. Whoever and whatever the conditions, IS sympathizers and combatants returning from Iraq and Syria shall be treated seriously by the government. Do not let them get away as if there were no action on them before they come back living their life in society.

Profiles of the IS combatants and sympathizers returning to Indonesia need to be studied in detail. Data networks, financial and communications flow need to be observed to prevent them to build new cells and groups in Indonesia. Observation on the network, financial, and communication needs to be carried out continuously towards IS sympathizers to prevent acts of terror in Indonesia. IS sympathizers and combatants is a great threat to the potential for terrorism in Indonesia.

Society in general need to be prepared to counter the radical propaganda if they are living around IS sympathizers and combatants. Countering propaganda cannot just be done institutionally. Communities, organizations/religious social institutions, and other elements such as educational institutions should be encouraged by the government to fight radicalism propaganda from the smallest neighborhood.

Indonesia as a country that values diversity should not be threatened by radical groups which impose their will. The threat of radical groups will not occur if a vulnerability owned by Indonesia such as intolerance, interest groups, border issue, including the issue of poverty and lack of education, can be overcome. These vulnerabilities will be exploited by radical groups to carry out the action.

The assertion of government against the IS sympathizers and combatants returning from Iraq and Syria will be an opener key against the threat of terrorism from radical groups.

*) Intelligence and terrorism analyst, Master degree of Intelligence Strategic Study at University of Indonesia. 

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